Data-Driven Assessment of Renewable Energy Deployment and Emission Reduction in South Asia

Abstract

South Asia is experiencing increasing energy demand and growing environmental pressure because of continued reliance on fossil fuels. This paper presents a data-driven evaluation of renewable energy deployment in eight South Asian countries, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The study analyzes renewable energy share, installed capacity by source, CO₂ emissions, and technical potential for solar, wind, and biomass resources using harmonized datasets from international energy agencies. The assessment compares regional disparities and trend-based information to generate quantitative insights for policy implementation. Regression analysis indicates that the relationship between renewable penetration and emissions is statistically significant and negative (-0.68, 95% confidence interval: -0.82 to -0.54, R² = 0.72). The findings show that high renewable penetration is concentrated in hydropower-based countries, including Bhutan (82%) and Nepal (74%), whereas countries with lower renewable shares continue to face higher carbon impacts as energy demand grows. Solar energy appears to be the most predictable regional option, whereas wind and biomass potential remain location specific. The paper offers empirical data to support varied renewable energy policies and provides a policy-based analytical structure for sustainable energy planning in the developing world.