MUET logo

Assessment of watershed hydrological responses under climate change scenarios: a case study of Hunza River basin

Authors

  • Nazakat Hussain

    Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, Pakistan
    Author

  • Habib Ur Rehman

    Department of Civil Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
    Author

  • Mudassar Iqbal

    Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, Pakistan
    Author

  • Muhammad Kaleem Sarwar

    Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, Pakistan
    Author

  • Muhammad Awais Zafar

    Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, Pakistan
    Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22581/muet1982.0262

Keywords:

NDSI, UBC Watershed Model, SSPs Scenarios, Hunza River

Abstract

Climate change significantly affects the sustainability of water resources in the river watershed. The irregular precipitation distribution pattern, changes in the seasonal flows of rivers, and enhanced glaciers and snowmelt have been observed in recent decades across the watersheds of rivers in high mountains, including the Karakoram region. Comprehending the effects of climatic changes on watershed hydrology is essential for ensuring the well-being of human society, the sustainability of ecosystems, and the balance of environmental processes. These changes in precipitation, temperature, and glacier extent might result in diversified impacts on river flows in the glaciered basins of Pakistan. In this study, four global climate models (GCMs) under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and 5-8.5 scenarios, from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), for temperature and precipitation changes have been used. These GCMs data were input into the University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBCWM) to forecast the streamflow for the near future (2025-2050) as compared to a baseline period (2002-2009). In this study, changes in glacier extents were also assessed. Results of the glacier extents revealed that satellite images underestimate glacier extents by an average of 18.0% compared to ground survey measurements. Maximum streamflow was generated under SSP5-8.5 with SDC, followed by SSP2-4.5 of GCMs. Among the four GCMs, ACCESS-CM2, MPI-ESM1-2LR, and INM-CM5 are predicting better results than the BCC-CSM2-MR. This study provides detailed insights into the performance of climatic models, offering a foundation for developing adaptation strategies and guiding climate change policymaking in the region.

Downloads

References

Janjua, S., Hassan, I., Muhammad, S., Ahmed, S., & Ahmed, A. (2021). Water management in Pakistan’s Indus Basin: challenges and opportunities. Water Policy, 23(6), 1329–1343. https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2021.068

Yang, Y.-C., Yu, W., Savitsky, A., Alford, D., Brown, C., Wescoat, J., Debowicz, D., & Robinson, S. (2013). The Indus Basin of Pakistan. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9874-6

Kraaijenbrink, P.D., et al., Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia’s glaciers. 2017. 549(7671): p. 257-260.

Tielidze, L.G., et al., Supra-glacial debris cover changes in the Greater Caucasus from 1986 to 2014. 2020. 14(2): p. 585-598.

Wu, K., Liu, S., Jiang, Z., Xu, J., Wei, J. & Guo, W. (2018) Recent glacier mass balance and area changes in the Kangri Karpo Mountains from DEMs and glacier inventories, The Cryosphere, 12 (1), 103–121. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-103-2018.

Wang, R., Liu, S., Shangguan, D., Radić, V. & Zhang, Y. (2019) Spatial heterogeneity in glacier mass-balance sensitivity across high mountain Asia, Water, 11 (4), 776. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040776.

Wouters, B., Gardner, A. S. & Moholdt, G. (2019) Global glacier mass loss during the GRACE satellite mission (2002–2016), Frontiers in Earth Science, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00096.

Immerzeel, W. W., van Beek, L. P. H. & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2010). Climate change will affect the Asian water towers, Science, 328 (5984), 1382–1385. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1183188.

Xie, F., Liu, S., Wu, K., Zhu, Y., Gao, Y., Qi, M., Duan, S., Saifullah, M. & Tahir, A. A. (2020) Upward expansion of supra-glacial debris cover in the Hunza valley, Karakoram, during 1990 ∼ 2019, Frontiers in Earth Science, 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00308.

Zhang, J., Jia, L., Menenti, M. & Hu, G. (2019) Glacier facies mapping using a machine-learning algorithm: The Parlung Zangbo Basin case study, Remote Sensing, 11 (4). https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11040452

Alifu, H., Johnson, B. A. & Tateishi, R. (2016) Delineation of debris-covered glaciers based on a combination of geomorphometric parameters and a TIR/NIR/SWIR band ratio, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, 9 (2), 781–792. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2015.2500906.

Mölg, N., Bolch, T., Rastner, P., Strozzi, T. & Paul, F. (2018) A consistent glacier inventory for Karakoram and Pamir derived from Landsat data: Distribution of debris cover and mapping challenges, Earth System Science Data, 10 (4), 1807–1827. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1807-2018.

Robson, B. A., Nuth, C., Dahl, S. O., Hölbling, D., Strozzi, T. & Nielsen, P. R. (2015) Automated classification of debris-covered glaciers combining optical, SAR and topographic data in an object-based environment, Remote Sensing of Environment, 170, 372–387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.10.001.

Frey, H. & Paul, F. (2012) On the suitability of the SRTMDEM and ASTER GDEM for the compilation of topographic parameters in glacier inventories, International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 18, 480–490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2011.09.020.

Patel, A., Prajapati, R., Dharpure, J. K., Mani, S. & Chauhan, D. (2019) Mapping and monitoring of glacier areal changes using multispectral and elevation data: A case study over Chhota-Shigri glacier, Earth Science Informatics, 12 (4), 489–499. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-019-00388-x.

Lippl, S., Vijay, S. & Braun, M. (2018). Automatic delineation of debris-covered glaciers using InSAR coherence derived from X-, C- and L-band radar data: A case study of Yazgyl Glacier, Journal of Glaciology, 64 (247), 811–821. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.70.

Singh, V. & Goyal, M. K. (2018) An improved coupled framework for glacier classification: An integration of optical and thermal infrared remote-sensing bands, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 39 (20), 6864–6892. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2018.1468104.

Eisen, O., Frezzotti, M., Genthon, C., Isaksson, E., Magand, O., van den Broeke, M. R., Dixon, D. A., Ekaykin, A., Holmlund, P., Kameda, T., Karlöf, L., Kaspari, S., Lipenkov, V. Y., Oerter, H., Takahashi, S. & Vaughan, D. G. (2008) Ground-based measurements of spatial and temporal variability of snow accumulation in East Antarctica, Reviews of Geophysics, 46 (2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006RG000218.

Friedl, P., Weiser, F., Fluhrer, A. & Braun, M. H. (2020) Remote sensing of glacier and ice sheet grounding lines: A review, Earth-Science Reviews, 201, 102948. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102948.

Vincent, C., Ramanathan, A., Wagnon, P., Dobhal, D. P., Linda, A., Berthier, E., Sharma, P., Arnaud, Y., Azam, M. F., Jose, P. G. & Gardelle, J. (2013) Balanced conditions or slight mass gain of glaciers in the Lahaul and Spiti region (northern India, Himalaya) during the nineties preceded recent mass loss, The Cryosphere, 7 (2), 569–582. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-569-2013.

Adnan M, Nabi G, Kang S, et al (2017) Snowmelt runoff modelling under projected climate change patterns in the Gilgit river basin of northern Pakistan. Polish J Environ Stud 26(2):525-542. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/66719

Ali AF, Xiao CD, Zhang XP, et al. (2018) Projection of future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin, Karakoram Range (Pakistan) using HBV hydrological model. J Mt Sci 15:22182235. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-018-4907-4

Masood M, Shakir AS, Azhar AH, et al. (2020) Assessment of real-time, multi-satellite precipitation products under diverse climatic and topographic conditions. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 56:577-591. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-019-00166-1

Khan AJ, Koch M (2021) Generation of a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) through temporal Reconstruction, Correction & Informed Regionalisation-“ReCIR”. Int Soil Water Conserv Res 9(3): 445-460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2021.01.005

Latif Y, Yaoming M, Yaseen M (2018) Spatial analysis of precipitation time series over the Upper Indus Basin. Theor Appl Climatol 131:761-775. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-2007-3

Hayat H, Akbar TA, Tahir AA, et al. (2019) Simulating current and future river-flows in the snowmelt-runoff model and RCP scenarios. Water 11(4): 1-19. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040761

Hussain N, Habib Ur Rehman, Iqbal M, Zafar MA, Sarwar MK, Tariq MAR; Assessing the supraglacier extent of Karakoram glaciers located in Hunza River Basin, Pakistan. AQUA - Water Infrastructure, Ecosystems and Society 1 September 2024; 73 (9): 1884–1898. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2024.182

Garee K, Chen X, Bao A, et al. (2017) Hydrological modelling of the upper Indus basin: A case study from a high-altitude glacierised catchment, Hunza. Water (Switzerland) 9(1):1-20. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9010017

Ali Z, Iqbal M, Khan IU, et al. (2023). Hydrological response under CMIP6 climate projection in Astore River Basin, Pakistan. Journal of Mountain Science 20(8). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-022-7872-x

Naeem UA, Habib-ur-Rehman, Hashmi HN, et al. (2015) Ranking sensitive calibrating parameters of UBC Watershed Model. KSCE J Civ Eng 19:1538-1547. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-015-0515-9

Adnan, M., Liu, S., Saifullah, M., Iqbal, M., Saddique, Q., Ul Hussan, W., & Latif, Y. (2024). Estimation of changes in runoff and its sources in response to future climate change in a critical zone of the Karakoram mountainous region, Pakistan, in the near and far future. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2291330

Reid, T. D., & Brock, B. W. (2010). An energy-balance model for debris-covered glaciers including heat conduction through the debris layer. Journal of Glaciology, 56(199), 903–916.https://doi.org/10.3189/002214310794457218

Azam, M. F., Wagnon, P., Vincent, C., Ramanathan, A. L., et al. (2021). Review of the status and mass balance of Himalayan-Karakoram glaciers. Earth-Science Reviews, 218,103670.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103670

Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J., & Meehl, G. A. (2010). Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models. Journal of Climate, 23(10), 2739–2758. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3361.1

IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press.

Immerzeel, W. W., Pellicciotti, F., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2012). Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds. Nature Geoscience, 6, 742–745. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1896

Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Shrestha, A. B., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2016). Consistent increase in High Asia’s runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation. Nature Climate Change, 6, 864–870. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3114

Scherler, D., Bookhagen, B., & Strecker, M. R. (2011). Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover. Nature Geoscience, 4, 156–159. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1068

Rowan, A. V., Egholm, D. L., Quincey, D. J., & Glasser, N. F. (2015). Modelling the feedback between mass balance, ice flow, and debris transport to predict the response to climate change of debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 430, 427–438. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.09.004

Published

2025-07-01

Issue

Vol. 44 No. 3 (2025): July Issue

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2025 Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Assessment of watershed hydrological responses under climate change scenarios: a case study of Hunza River basin. (2025). Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, 44(3), 83-93. https://doi.org/10.22581/muet1982.0262

Similar Articles

31-40 of 65

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.